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Southern Californians have come to expect wildfires when summer rolls in and temperatures spike. For those who fight the flames, fire weather is something to keep an eye out for during the other three seasons too.
Fire weather conditions aren't necessarily confined to heat — Tom Rolinski, a meteorologist with the U.S. Forest Service, told KPCC that there are many factors to consider that are cause for concern.
“When we talk about fire weather, it’s maybe misleading to many folks, but really, we’re talking about weather conditions that are conducive for fire development, fire growth and just for increased fire activity in general,” he said.
Those conducive weather conditions include everything from abnormally hot and dry winds to increased lightning activity.
In the fifth year of drought in California, Rolinski said dry weather has become the new normal throughout the year. Winters are much more mild, he added, with much less rain compared to previous winters when there was little fire activity.
“In the recent four to five years, that hasn’t been the case. We’ve seen fires occurring in January, December, February. We’ve seen critical fire conditions occurring during those months when normally things would be fairly quiet across Southern California," Rolinski said.
He works for the service's fire coordination center, which disseminates fire predictions to agencies across the state and lets them know when their area will experience increased activity. The information is based on weather and the condition of the natural fuels that fuel fires, he said.
Fuel conditions are the most critical aspect in determining potential fire activity, Rolinski said.
“You can have critical weather, but if the fuels are not receptive to ignitions, it doesn’t matter how severe the weather might be. If the fuels are wet, you’re not gonna get any significant fire activity," he said.
He notes that Santa Ana winds after rain are a good example of this. The winds could be hot and dry, but all the fuel is damp — eliminating the threat of fire.
Once this information is dispersed across the state, the various city fire departments decide whether or not to augment their staff or acquire additional firefighting resources, Rolinski said. They even have the option to bring in additional resources from outside the state.
According to him, most of the Southern California region is above the normal threshold of fire potential — June was an extremely active month in Central California as well.
Despite the current ongoing fires in the region, when forecasting fire weather conditions, things can always get a little murky, Rolinski said.